Objectives

To properly respond to different climate related issues , as well as support adaptation efforts to climate change, the Climate Scenario Group is actively involved in different projects developed by the Direction of Impacts and Adaptation at Ouranos. It also responds to requests issued directly from Ouranos member organizations. The group aims at producing relevant scenarios in an efficient way while improving the climate scenario construction methods according to scientific advances in the field. A major thrust of this work is the characterisation and communication of the uncertainties associated to scenario construction. This work is carried out in collaboration with Ouranos teams involved in projects.

The three main activities of the Climate Scenarios Group are:

 

• Develop and maintain climate databases

The Climate Scenarios Group is responsible for maintaining the databases required for generating climate scenarios and related activities such as evaluation of climate model simulations. The databases include an ever-growing number of regional climate projections from the CRCM, as well as regional and global climate model simulations from various modeling centres around the world.  Moreover, observational and reanalysis datasets are provided by various agencies including Environment Canada and the Ministère du Développement durable, de l’Environnement et des Parcs 

• Collaborate with end-users

One of the main roles of the Climate Scenarios Group is to ensure that climate scenarios are adapted to the needs of users. At the beginning of each project, members of the Climate Scenarios Group work with these collaborators to define key parameters such as the most appropriate indices and variables, number of climate simulations, and types of statistical analysis to select. One challenge is to be sure that the limits and reliability of the results of scenarios are clearly identified. This requires a solid knowledge of climate modeling science and applied climatology as well as the ability to effectively communicate with users and understand their needs. The dialogue is maintained throughout the duration of a project and includes consulting, writing and reviewing reports, scientific papers, communications and discussions.

• Develop of analytical tools

Members of the Climate Scenarios Group are engaged in ongoing research and development activities with other Ouranos researchers to develop and test new research approaches for climate scenario production and communication of results to end-users. These efforts are focused on:

- Methods for post-treatment of the climate simulations and for downscaling for use in hydrology;

- The estimation of uncertainties in climate scenarios;

-  Development of statistical tools for construction of optimal climate scenarios from large ensembles of climate model simulations;

- The analysis of future changes in precipitation and temperature extremes.

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