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Impacts & adaptation
Ecosystems, Biodiversity and Climate Change (EcoBioCC)
Program Coordinator: Robert Siron
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Context
Implicit in the title of this program are numerous key elements for society, which cannot be considered separately under climate change. Indeed, climate is one of the main factors affecting the distribution, growth and phenology of species as well as affecting habitat. At the same time, ecosystems and biodiversity contribute to the natural cycles of water and particulate matter and, therefore, to the local climate. Even if biodiversity and ecosystems have been adapting for millions of year to the evolution of climate, the big question today is whether these same ecosystems are capable of facing the rapidly changing climatic conditions predicted for the coming decades. Climate change, in fact, is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. We have already witnessed remarkable losses in global biodiversity due to overexploitation of living resources, urbanization, intensive agriculture, pollution, and the fragmentation of habitat. Climate change will only exacerbate this situation. The cumulative effects threaten to multiply the negative consequences, especially where the resilience of ecosystems is concerned; at risk, in particular, is the ability of ecosystems to continue providing ecological services essential to our well-being and survival. From the point of view of adaptation to climate change, protecting biodiversity is part of the solution!
Quebec’s geographical territory, which is characterized by a temperate Nordic climate, is in the paradoxal situation where increasing temperatures should, theoretically, be accompanied by the migration north of plant and animal species from more southerly niches, at the rhythm set by the migrating isotherms (Berteaux et al., 2010). However, the expected increased diversity of species isn’t necessarily a good thing as increased competition for habitat will risk squeezing out native species, particularly in the case of aggressive, or invasive, migrating species. In this case, native species as well as the non-natives, cultivated for commercial ends, could be threatened. Trees and herbaceous plants will be particularly affected by such trends, as they will not be able to migrate quickly enough to adjust to the projected coming temperature gradients. Such factors as an increase in the degree-days, in the freeze-thaw cycle, the plant growth cycle, as well as in the pattern of precipitation and snow cover will all upset the phenology of species and their interactions. In other words, Quebec must prepare for big change in its communities and their ecology.
Siron R. 2010. ‘’Écosystèmes, biodiversité et changements climatiques, Des enjeux indissociables’’, Vecteur Environnement, Vol. 43, no 5, 10-13
Objectives
The overall direction and priorities of the program were validated by the program committee, which consists of the Ouranos principal members and partners, following the identification of the needs and priorities of each partner. Projects developed in the framework of the Plan d’action sur les changements climatiques du gouvernement du Québec (PACC – action 26) are evaluated by a steering committee to assure their pertinence, especially to the MDDEP (Ministère du Développement durable, de l’Environnement et des Parcs) and the MRNF (Ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune). In June, 2010, the scientific program, EcoBioCC (Ecosystems, Biodiversity and Climate Change), was approved by Ouranos’ Board of Directors and numerous projects are already under way.
The global objective of this program is to decrease the vulnerability of ecosystems and people to the impacts of climate change, and to increase the ability to adapt:
- By improving knowledge of the impact of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity ; and
- By developing tools for management and decision-making
It’s illusory to think that this objective may be reached after only a few projects, for the impact and repercussions of climate change on biodiversity vary considerably depending on the type of species, the bioclimatic domain, and the ecosystem, and may be observed at every level of biological organization: genes, species and ecosystems. The first phase of the EcobioCC program has, therefore, adapted an organizational structure to support numerous projects addressing climate change in Quebec and how the province will adapt. Ultimately, the results of these projects should provide preliminary scientific bases allowing us to trace a first integrated portrait of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities in order to support a strategy for the adaptation to climate change based on Quebec’s ecosystems and biodiversity.
At the genetic level, it’s important to know the interactions between CC and genetic change in order to discern the eventual role of genetic adaptation in species confronted by CC. We will also be able to identify species or populations with limited genetic diversity and that will, therefore, be more vulnerable to CC, as well as native species whose genetic makeup allows them to better adapt to the projected changes.
At the species and community level, we are most interested in species with the following characteristics: rare or threatened, invasive, vectors of disease, migratory, with commercial importance, indicating climate change, or those species with key roles in the structure of ecological communities.
At the level of ecosystems and habitats, we are most interested in the Saint Lawrence wetlands because of their critical importance to the health of ecosystems in the context of CC; the thermal refuges in lakes and rivers; as well as in ecosystems providing biological services which could reinforce the adaptive abilities of certain key socio-economic sectors.
Finally, the program also wishes to develop exploratory approaches and innovative methodologies which will allow us to be best prepared for the management of CC in Quebec, in order to increase the resilience of ecosystems and to protect the most vulnerable elements.
Through this program of directed research, we wish to learn which elements of biodiversity will be most vulnerable to CC, better understand how species will react, how habitat will change, how ecosystems will evolve with time, and what will be the extent of these reactions in the entire province? Without disregarding the socioeconomic impact on those sectors most dependant on ecological services, we aim to find means of increasing our ability to adapt to CC based on ecosystems and biodiversity. When we will have the answers to these questions, we will be able to propose concrete measures that are both adaptive and appropriate to future climate change in Quebec. This is the scientific challenge posed by Ouranos’ EcoBioCC program.
Research projects in progress
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