Program Co-ordinator: François Morneau

Context

• The eastern coastal region of Quebec stretches from the beginning of the St. Lawrence Estuary, downstream of Quebec City, to the Magdalen Islands, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
• Over one-third of inhabitants live less than 500 m from the shore.
• Their lifestyle is closely tied to the sea and depends on critical infrastructure heavily exposed to coastal erosion (roads, harbours, buildings).
• The built heritage threatened by erosion over the next 30 years is very valuable: on the North Shore, over 50% of coastal communities with nearly 100,000 inhabitants are located less than 500 m from the shore.

Although coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon, it is exacerbated by a number of climate-induced factors:

• rising sea levels
• changes in ice cover
• disruption of freeze/thaw cycles
• changes in storm intensity and trajectories.

Objectives

• Determine the most likely erosion scenarios for the 2020 and 2050 time horizons.
• Assess biophysical vulnerability in coastal areas.
• Assess the region’s socioeconomic vulnerability.
• Provide decision makers and users with a framework for solutions aimed at adapting to the impact of erosion phenomena.
• Jointly with users, help develop integrated coastal management, to cope with problems caused by shoreline erosion.

Research projects

Vagues et critères de conception Principal researcher : U. Neumeier (Université du Québec À Rimouski) 2011 – 2013

Modélisation des glaces dans l'estuaire et le golfe du Saint-Laurent dans la perspective des changements climatiques Principal researcher: Simon Senneville (ISMER-UQAR) 2011 – 2013

Prévision des niveaux d'eau dans l'estuaire et le golfe du Saint-Laurent ainsi que dans la mer du Labrador en changement climatique pour la période de 2100 Principal researcher : Zhigang Xu (ISMER-UQAR) 2011 – 2013