Production of new hydroclimatic simulations for southern Quebec using Raven: An examination of the uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in the context of climate change
The use of the Raven framework will help building several semi-distributed models appropriate to the watersheds of southern Quebec. It will allow the exploration of the different algorithms to simulate snow melting and evapotranspiration.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
The hydrological modelling platform used by the hydrologic expertise unit at the Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, which is based on the HYDROTEL model, has made it possible to generate a large number of hydrological simulations and projections for southern Quebec using the numerous climate scenarios produced at Ouranos. These simulations and projections will be the basis for new flood hazard mapping and the next edition of the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Québec, scheduled for 2022.
However, despite the use of several sets of parameters to describe HYDROTEL’s parametric uncertainty, the uncertainty associated with modelling hydrological processes may be underrepresented. In fact, HYDROTEL’s structure makes it difficult to describe and quantify its structural uncertainty. This project therefore aims to fill this gap by using a flexible hydrological modelling framework called Raven.
Objective(s)
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To set up several semi-distributed hydrological models for southern Quebec using the Raven framework, in order to quantify hydrological uncertainty within a hydrometeorological chain dedicated to projection
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To produce a set of new hydrological simulations and projections
This project is part of the INFO-Crue initiative set up by the MELCCFP.
Methodology
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Make use of the Raven framework to build several semi-distributed models appropriate to the watersheds of southern Quebec.
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Explore different algorithms to simulate snow melting and evapotranspiration
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Develop a method for analyzing the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling
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Select climate scenarios and produce hydrological projections
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Perform uncertainty analyses to quantify the different sources of uncertainty in the hydrological modelling
Expected results
Implementation of several hydrological models of similar complexity to HYDROTEL, emulated by Raven, covering a large part of southern Quebec, allowing for the production of new hydrological simulations and projections for better quantification of the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling.
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
The flows simulated using the modelling developed as part of this project will make it possible to explore and better understand the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the watersheds of southern Quebec, in particular through better quantification of the uncertainty associated with the choice of hydrological model.
This database could, for example, be fed into hydraulic models to refine the mapping of flood hazards.
The modelling and associated data will be made freely accessible.
Funding
Other participants
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Direction de l’expertise hydrique (MELCCFP)
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