Energy
How is electricity production affected by climate change?
Climate change can affect electricity production in Quebec, including hydroelectricity, wind power, biomass and solar power.
Hydroelectric
In addition to the warming of average temperatures, climate change means changes in precipitation patterns and therefore in hydrological regimes. These changes could alter hydroelectric production capacity, which is dependent on water inputs to the catchment areas used.
Too much water: The effects of spring floods
The projected increase in winter and spring precipitation, especially when combined with winter thaws, may cause the spring freshet to arrive earlier. While these changes may initially appear to represent an opportunity for electricity generation, the potential benefits will depend in particular on the capacity of the reservoir, its level at the time of the flooding, and fluctuations in electricity demand.
Not enough water: The effects of low water levels
Conversely, an increase in periods with low water levels in the summer and fall is projected in a large part of southern Quebec. This change could have consequences for hydroelectric production capacity, particularly for run-of-river power plants, which do not have a reservoir and depend directly on the river flow. A decrease in flow rate would therefore lead to a decrease in production capacity.
The interaction between high and low water levels has a significant effect on the water supplies of reservoirs.
In 2023, Quebec experienced its lowest water inflows since 1943. This significant deficit led to a marked decrease in electricity generation in the province compared to previous years. The weak spring freshet combined with a very dry summer and fall had the effect of reducing the levels of the reservoirs, particularly at the La Grande (Northern Quebec) and Manic (Côte-Nord) complexes. Among the consequences, Hydro-Québec had to reduce its exports and suffered performance losses of approximately $1 billion.
While climate data can reveal major hydrological trends, further efforts are needed to better understand the duration, intensity and frequency of low flow events in a future climate, particularly for northern Quebec and in rivers with regulated flow.
Research Project | Risk of Persistent Drought in the Hydroelectric Reservoirs of Quebec-Labrador: A Millennial Perspective
This approach allows Canadian hydropower producers to better assess their exposure to persistent droughts while benefitting from a better understanding of the long-term hydrological variability in the production area.
Webinar | Reservoir Vulnerability in a Future Climate and Critical Hydrological Periods
This webinar presents recent studies in hydrology to assess water management needs and characterize severe hydrological events for managers.
Wind power
Although hydroelectricity is dominant in Quebec, wind power is also an attractive, low GHG-emitting source of electricity. Climate change can influence wind energy generation in several ways. However, its long-term effects remain uncertain for Quebec, since knowledge about the changes in wind patterns is still limited.
An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as high winds, storms or episodes of freezing rain, can damage infrastructure and cause wind turbines to break down or force them to shut down temporarily for safety reasons.
In fact, changes in wind patterns could alter the productivity of wind farms globally, increasing it or decreasing it depending on the region. These changes in wind patterns include:
Their intensity
Their consistency
Their direction
The duration and frequency of wind droughts (prolonged periods of no wind)
Research Project | Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential
This project helps Canadian electricity grid operators, such as Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro and Ontario Power Generation, to improve long-term wind energy planning.
Biomass
The energy consumed in Quebec from biomass comes mainly from forestry, agri-food and urban waste (such as residential food waste and landfill sites). Although biomass energy generation is limited in Quebec, it is significant and could increase.
The impact of climate change may be felt particularly in terms of the productivity and distribution of forest biomass. Rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and the increased frequency of extreme events, such as forest fires, can have significant impacts on forest stand dynamics and yield.
For example, more frequent and intense forest fires can reduce available forest resources. In addition, periods of vegetative growth can be disrupted, lengthened or shifted, directly affecting the productivity and geographical distribution of plant species.
Solar
Although solar energy is still marginal in Quebec’s energy mix, it is generating increasing interest and it’s becoming important to study the effects of climate on this energy source.
The impacts of climate change on solar energy are still poorly documented and long-term trends remain uncertain. That said, certain phenomena can nevertheless impair the performance of these installations.
Cloud cover, atmospheric vapour and aerosol content, and smoke from forest fires can affect irradiation and reduce the solar energy available at ground level.
Higher ambient temperatures can weaken the efficiency of photovoltaic cells and reduce their performance (up to 22% at 35°C) and lead to premature aging of the equipment. Solar panels are also exposed to wind damage, particularly during episodes of extreme wind.
Impacts on electricity transmission and distribution
Since many hydroelectric plants and wind farms are located far from major urban centres, where the energy demand is concentrated, the electricity they generate must be transported over long distances, particularly from the north to the south of the province. The vast transmission and distribution network spread across the entire province is exposed to a variety of impacts from climate change.
Extreme events, which have tended to become more intense and frequent due to climate change, can damage electrical transmission infrastructure or reduce the efficiency of certain components, such as transformers, and disrupt supply.
These extreme events include :
Climate projections show that the number of annual hours of freezing rain may increase in more northern regions of the province. The significant weight of this rain on the transmission wires and towers increases their risk of collapse. A storm with high winds can also cause wires and poles to break, disrupting electricity distribution and causing power outages for many users.
Extreme heat reduces the transmission capacity of power lines, potentially compromising the ability to meet periods of high demand. Extreme heat is associated with the expansion of electrical cables: it can lower them below the minimum safe height and even cause electrical arcs or generate fires.
Vegetation near power lines is a source of challenges for the transmission and distribution system and is a major cause of service interruptions. The increase in extreme events is pushing Hydro-Québec to review its vegetation control criteria for trees in urban areas and the vegetation under high-voltage lines. More frequent maintenance is needed to avoid contact between vegetation and distribution infrastructure.
Research project | Fire Exposure and Adaptation in the Canadian Taiga
The approaches developed can guide the strategy decisions made by industry partners and communities in sub-Arctic regions regarding wildfire risk management.
Climate change and fluctuating electricity demand
Rising temperatures can significantly affect energy demand. Higher demand is anticipated in the summer, especially during heat waves, due to the more intensive use of air conditioners.
Several other phenomena related to high temperatures can also compromise the balance between electricity supply and demand during the summer. These include:
The reduced thermal capacity of conductors
Peak demand in the summer
Drought
Forest fires
Conversely, demand may decrease in the winter, as milder temperatures reduce heating needs.
It’s important to bear in mind that overall electricity demand will increase in the future as a direct consequence of the growing efforts to electrify transport, buildings and industries.
Through a cascade effect, a failure in the energy system can affect several other systems, such as the healthcare system, water supply, telecommunications and transportation. Energy is also one of the ten sectors identified as essential infrastructure in the National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure.
Last update of the page : december 2025.
