Improved calculation of the Hydroclimatic Atlas indicators

The aim of this project is to standardize and improve the methodology for calculating the hydroclimatic indicators in the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Québec.

Project details
Scientific program
Programmation 2020-2028
Theme(s) and priority(s)
Climate Science and Climate Services - Extreme Events
Start and duration
September 2025 • October 2027
Project Status
In progress
Linked project
QClim’Eau
 
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Guillaume Evin
Institut des Géosciences et de l'Environnement (IGE)
Louis-Philippe Caron
Ouranos
Éric Dupuis
Ouranos

Context

The Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Québec describes the water regimes of nearly 10,000 river sections in southern Quebec under present and future climate conditions, and serves as a reference for a large number of hydrology-related studies in Quebec. In addition, the Hydroclimatic Atlas includes data from hydrometric stations, a reconstruction of river flows in the recent past, and a series of hydrological indicators (high and low water levels, etc.) for a historical period and for future horizons (i.e. taking climate change into account).

In the latest edition of the Hydroclimatic Atlas (2022), the hydrological indicators were derived from frequency analyses using separate methodologies for each of the above-mentioned products. This project aims to standardize and improve the current methodology, considering the fact that the next version of the Hydroclimatic Atlas will be based on multiple climate and hydrological models.

 

This project is part of the QClim’Eau initiative, a collaboration between the Ministry of the Environment, Climate Change, Wildlife, and Parks (MELCCFP) and Ouranos.

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Objective(s)

To develop a methodology for calculating hydroclimatic indicators with improvements to the current method. The proposed method should quantify uncertainty and take the multi-model approach planned for the next version of the Hydroclimatic Atlas into account.

Methodology

  • Standardization of the frequency analysis methodology for calculating indicators

  • Calculation of historical indicators (past climate) obtained from simulated flows forced by meteorological reanalysis or climate simulations (historical scenario) and future indicators from future climate simulations for a test region

  • Creation of the Reference Climate Indicator Portrait and exploration of the results for a test region

  • Proposal of improvements to the current method for projecting indicators in a future climate

  • Development of plausibility criteria, in particular in the case of very significant changes in a future climate

  • Calculation of relative changes and projection of historical indicators in a future climate for the test region

  • Analysis of results and comparison with previous versions of the Hydroclimatic Atlas

Expected results

  • Improvement of the hydrological information provided in the Hydroclimatic Atlas

  • Publication of a scientific article

  • Advances in the statistical hydrology knowledge at Ouranos

Benefits for adaptation

Benefits for adaptation

The project is contributing to the enhancement of the Hydroclimatic Atlas, a resource that is used to support the implementation of climate-resilient water management practices.

Funding

Other participants

  • Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Ouranos

  • Richard Turcotte, MELCCFP

716900

 

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