Enhancing the robustness of recharge simulation tools for climate change adaptation
This project aims to strengthen the scientific robustness of groundwater recharge simulation tools in the context of climate change. This will support their use in the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Québec.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
As a result of climate change, groundwater availability is likely to vary due to changes in recharge regimes and low-water seasons. To anticipate this, the Ministère de l’Environnement, de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs (MELCCFP) is using the HELP and HydroBudget infiltration models to estimate groundwater recharge across southern Quebec. However, these models have significant structural uncertainties, in particular due to the limited consideration given to interactions between surface water and groundwater. This project aims to rigorously validate these simplified models and propose methodological improvements, where needed, to enhance their usefulness to the Hydroclimatic Atlas.
This project is part of the QClim’Eau initiative, a collaboration between the Ministry of the Environment, Climate Change, Wildlife, and Parks (MELCCFP) and Ouranos.
Objective(s)
The main objective of the project is to strengthen the scientific robustness of groundwater recharge simulation tools in the context of climate change in order to support their use in the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Québec.
Methodology
The project is centred on a structured experiment to compare different approaches to modelling groundwater recharge in the Yamaska River basin and to develop new simulation methods that are suitable for southern Quebec.
The proposed methodology is based on robust approaches drawn from the scientific literature and from recognized operational practices in Quebec. It is organized into six methodological components that correspond directly to the project’s specific objectives:
Detailed characterization of river and piezometric low-water dynamics
Development and calibration of a coupled physically-based hydrological model (CATHY)
Application of the HELP model in accordance with current practice
Development and calibration of the HELP model improved by coupling with MODFLOW
Comparative analysis of the different models using the historical climate
Assessment of the robustness of future climate models
Expected results
Recommendations on the use of the infiltration model (HELP) in historical and future climates
Update of spatialized recharge estimates with HELP for the PACES Montérégie-Est area
Production of a calibrated coupled hydrological model for the Yamaska basin
Generation of simulated historical and future recharge data for the Yamaska basin
Improved understanding of recharge and low-water processes in a changing climate
Training of highly qualified personnel (masters, post-doctorate, professional) in hydrogeology
Publication of scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals
Presentation at the International Association of Hydrogeologists national chapter conference
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
Improved infiltration models will allow for more accurate representations of groundwater recharge in future climates, thereby supporting decision-making on sustainable water resource management.
Funding
Other participants
Claudio Paniconi, INRS
Lemuel Arzola, INRS
717900
