Complexity and climate resilience: Preparing civil protection officials for the cascading effects of critical systems failure

This project aims to deepen knowledge of the complexity associated with cascading failures of critical systems to improve understanding and enable better decision-making on this subject.

Project details

Scientific program

Programmation 2020-2028

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Economy - Adaptation of Living Environments - Extreme Events - Climate Governance

Start and duration

April 2025 • March 2028

Project Status

In progress

Principal(s) investigator(s)

Benoît Béchard

Centre d'innovation et de recherche en sécurité civile du Québec

Context

Climate change is amplifying the frequency and intensity of extreme events, threatening critical systems. The level of integration of these systems is such that a failure can cause cascading effects and major interruptions of multiple vital services. Managing this complexity requires municipal civil protection managers to consider the interdependencies of the many situational factors, while thinking in advance about the multiple consequences of their decisions.

This project focuses on the complexity of these interdependencies and the challenge of decision-making in the context of critical systems failure. This context calls for processing complex information in a systemic manner. Complex decision-making capabilities play an essential role in risk prevention, the implementation of climate change adaptation solutions, and disaster response preparation.

By focusing on the information and communications technology sector as a case study, the project aims to develop a better understanding of the complexity that structures the interdependencies between all critical systems.

Objective(s)

To improve understanding and decision-making in the face of complexity in order to facilitate the management of the risks and consequences associated with the cascading effects of the failure of an information and communications technology system caused by climate-related events
To provide municipal officials with practical ways to better prepare for these cascading failures

Methodology

Literature review on:
- The factors that are likely to influence decision-making and risk management during the failure of an information and communications technology system due to climate-related events
- The existing solutions and measures to prepare for the management of the complex issues generated by this type of failure
Semi-structured interviews aimed at identifying the needs, state of knowledge, and current practices of municipal civil protection officials in managing the risks of the cascading effects associated with the failure of an information and communications technology system in the context of climate change
Analysis of the existing preparation measures compared to the needs, considering the territorial specificities of Quebec
Assessment of the potential of adaptation solutions and existing preparedness measures through a pilot simulation game experience allowing end beneficiaries to familiarize themselves with these methods

Expected results

Ce projet permettra de comprendre les facteurs susceptibles d’influencer la prise This project will improve understanding of the factors that are likely to influence complex decision-making and risk management in the context of critical system failure caused by climate-related events. By identifying the specific needs of municipal civil protection officials in the management of these events as well as potential solutions, the project also aims to establish the foundations for the development of solutions applicable to the Quebec context.

Through several communication activities, the project will also raise awareness among civil protection officials of the challenges associated with the complexity of decision-making further to a climate disaster.

Benefits for adaptation

Civil protection officials will be better prepared to manage the complex situations associated with cascading effects when critical systems fail.

The results of this project will enable an initial matching of the needs of municipal civil protection officials in the management of climate-related critical systems failure with the available solutions.

This project will help in the preparation for managing the scale of the consequences of the residual risks associated with climate change.