Understanding Adaptation Science
A key step in the adaptation process
Assessing climate risks is a key step in the adaptation process. It allows all the climate risks that an organization may face to be identified. It is used to rank risks by priority in order to plan the adaptation measures to address them.
What is a risk?
A risk is the potential harm resulting from the exposure of a vulnerable human or natural system to a climate hazard. Risk (R) is the combination of the likelihood (L) of a hazard and its consequences (C).
Calculating risk: R = L x C
Likelihood: chance that a hazard will occur, which can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.
Consequences: harm, damage or benefit to the natural and human systems affected, should the hazard occur.
Framing the process
Before starting to assess climate risks, it’s important to establish the spatial and temporal limits of the adaptation process and to characterize the key elements that will be required for the next steps.
This includes:
profiling the organization and its territory
defining the systems that could be affected by climate change
identifying climate hazards that may impact these systems
The main steps in climate risk assessment
Climate risk assessment involves three sub-steps:
Risk identification involves determining which systems and components are exposed to climate change and vulnerable to it. Those identified are kept for the next steps, while the others are set aside.
Risk analysis involves establishing, for each exposed and vulnerable element, the likelihood (L) of a hazard occurring and the severity (C) of its potential consequences.
These two values, together, establish the amount of risk (R) associated with that element. This risk analysis should be carried out over several time horizons (current and future), and using different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Risk evaluation involves ranking all of these risks in order of seriousness, in accordance with the values that were established previously. This highlights the risks that should be addressed first, based on the level of urgency, the resources available, the objectives being pursued, etc.
Risk assessment is explained in the guide Élaborer un plan d’adaptation aux changements climatiques produced jointly by the Ministère de l'Environnement, de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs and Ouranos.
Ouranos offers a series of easy-to-understand videos that explain the concepts of climate change and adaptation (the Tour d’horizon! series), and a video that explains how open-water flooding will change in Quebec over the next few years.
