Expected consequences of worsening severe water shortages in Quebec (CASCADES) Phase 2 - Regional stories

Several severe low water level episodes have occurred in recent years, and it is recognized that Quebec will be increasingly affected by water shortages due to climate change. However, the consequences of severe water shortages are still poorly documented.

The first phase of the CASCADES project (2022-2024) provided an initial portrait of the possible consequences of water deficits throughout southern Quebec. This second phase of the project aims to build on these province-wide results in order to explore the chain of consequences more deeply in two areas where the situation is expected to deteriorate in the coming years. They are the integrated water management zones by watershed of the Nicolet River, in the Centre-du-Québec region, and the Rivière du Nord. 

The project’s value lies in its goal of initiating the documentation of the consequence propagation chain through consultations with the water stakeholders of the two areas involved, based on the narratives developed in Phase 1 of the project.

The overall objective of the project is to document the chain of consequences of a future severe low-water event at the local scale, including the modification of hydroclimatic conditions and the impacts on ecosystems, usages and community well-being, for the integrated water management zones by watershed of the Rivière du Nord (Abrinord) and the Nicolet River (COPERNIC).

The proposed method has three stages:

• Consulting with local stakeholders. In collaboration with the watershed organizations of the areas under study, 8 to 12 stakeholders will be identified in each area to take part in the process (introductory webinar to the project, participation in an individual interview or a virtual focus group).

• Adapting the narratives to the areas being studied and conducting an in-person situational workshop for each of them. The purpose of the workshop is to encourage the stakeholders to identify and add detail to the cascade of potential consequences of a severe low-water episode in a future climate. 

• Preparing deliverables and disseminating the results in the form of two case studies.

The findings are that in a climate of +3 degrees Celsius, lower water availability, in terms of both quantity and quality, can lead to a series of consequences affecting ecosystems, water uses and ultimately communities.

For ecosystems, the degradation of aquatic and riparian environments can be manifested through rising water temperatures, a decrease in dissolved oxygen, mortality of organisms (including fish), the proliferation of cyanobacteria, habitat loss during periods of low water levels due to drying, and the spread of invasive exotic plant species. 

The impacts on human uses can also be severe during a critical episode. While the first consequences generally consist of restrictions on non-essential uses, other potential impacts include pressure drops in water distribution systems and preventive boil water advisories. Regional economies could also be affected. For example, farmers could suffer significant losses in income, as could recreational tourism businesses based on water sports.

The project highlighted health consequences for hospitals, schools, daycares, prisons and seniors’ residences, which may be put at risk by pressure drops and prolonged boil water advisories in the absence of an alternative source of drinking water, and for private well owners, whose water quality could be degraded when levels are low.

Beyond the physical and economic impacts, there is a tangible risk of social cohesion eroding when a resource becomes scarce, due to the intensification of competition and tensions between users and increasing non-compliance with usage restrictions. Disinformation, particularly on social media, exacerbates social instability, while trust in local authorities can deteriorate. Thus, managing water scarcity is not only a hydrological issue, but a challenge for governance, communication and equity (Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Chains of consequences between municipal supplies, population health and social cohesion.

Fictional territorial narratives were developed for each area studied so that plausible situations of water scarcity in a future climate could be made tangible. These have proven useful in mobilizing stakeholders, supporting collective thinking, anticipating risks, and stimulating preventive action. 

Lastly, several courses of action were identified to strengthen resilience to water shortages: deepen and extend the narrative framework approach to other regions of Quebec; structure the equitable and sustainable allocation of the resource during droughts; strengthen water governance in times of scarcity; consolidate the planning of water emergency measures; promote the emergence of a water culture; and develop communication strategies to maintain public trust.

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