The implications of climate change for the production, international trade and consumption of fruits and vegetables in Quebec

Climate change is affecting most crop yields and will likely change fruit and vegetable production in Quebec. In addition to local production, the supply of fruits and vegetables in Quebec depends on international trade (imports and exports) as well. The effects of climate change in other regions of the world will therefore also have crucial repercussions on both the quantity of fruits and vegetables available and their prices, with an impact on the market basket of Quebec households.

The main objectives of the project are to analyze the effects of climate change on the supply of fruits and vegetables on the Quebec market as well as on the consumption of fruits and vegetables by Quebec households.

The specific objectives are:

1. To analyze the effects of meteorological variables on Quebec fruit and vegetable production 

2. To analyze the effects of weather conditions on Quebec’s international trade (imports and exports) of fruits and vegetables

3. To analyze the transmission to the Quebec market of producer price shocks from Quebec’s main trading partners

4. To analyze the effects of price changes on the demand for fruits and vegetables by Quebec households 

5. To generate projections on the effects of climate change on the supply of fruits and vegetables in Quebec and on the market basket of Quebec households for these products 

• Estimate the relationships between yields and meteorological variables in Quebec using multivariate regression models

• Analyze fruit and vegetable trade between Quebec and its main trading partners (other provinces, the United States, the rest of the world) using a spatial equilibrium model that specifically includes climate-related production shocks

• Study how fruit and vegetable prices change over time for Quebec and its trading partners using a time-series econometric model that takes weather variables into account

• Estimate functions for the demand by Quebec households for fruits and vegetables, taking socioeconomic profile into account 

• Generate projections on the supply of fruits and vegetables in Quebec using the estimated coefficients from production and international trade models, and generate projections on the market basket of Quebec households for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 using the estimated coefficients of the household price transmission and demand models

• Consult with key stakeholders (industry, public health and social services, consumer associations, etc.) to identify the best policies to promote household access to fruits and vegetables in the context of climate change

• A scientific synthetic review

• Publication of scientific articles and research papers presenting the results to the scientific community

• Publication of information written for the general public presenting the results to the users and beneficiaries of the project

• A database composed of production, trade, household consumption and price data (Quebec and outside Quebec) for fruits and vegetables, to be made available to researchers and students

• Two workshops bringing together researchers and stakeholders benefiting from the project to promote understanding and use of the results

• Presentation of the results through webinars, workshops and scientific conferences

• Training of highly qualified personnel in the field of climate change and agri-food economics

• Bruno Larue, Université Laval

• Bérenger Bourgeois, Université Laval

• Laure Saulais, Université Laval

• Richard Hogue, Institut de recherche et de développement en agroéconomie

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