Experimentation on a prospective approach to accelerating transformational adaptation to climate change

This project aims to study the benefits of a prospective, collaborative approach within two supramunicipal bodies in Quebec that are engaged in a collective adaptation process, to see if it can promote broad-based engagement in a more transformational, systemic kind of adaptation.

Project details

Scientific program

Programmation 2020-2028

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Extreme Events - Adaptation of Living Environments - Climate Governance

Start and duration

May 2025 • March 2027

Project Status

In progress

Principal(s) investigator(s)

Franck Scherrer

Université de Montréal

Julia Verdun

Université de Montréal

Context

Adapting to climate change involves major systemic changes that are difficult to implement if they are not thought out over the long term. In addition, expertise on the use of methodologies must be developed to allow for the engagement of a wide variety of participants, which is critical to fostering collective resilience. Furthermore, the uncertainty inherent to different possible climate scenarios can hinder stakeholders’ engagement and their ability to visualize and debate about different possible modes of adaptation. Chemins de transition plans to apply its prospective methodology to two pilot territories, namely the Communauté métropolitaine de Québec and the Agglomeration de Longueuil, in order to evaluate how it can help meet these challenges.

Objective(s)

The general objective is to experiment with and evaluate the benefits of a prospective methodology in order to engage a diversity of stakeholders in a process of transformational local adaptation.

The specific objectives are the following.

Experiment on and strengthen:
- A collective governance approach to engage a wide variety of key partners in the transformational adaptation process
- Resources and a methodology for developing a collective vision based on the contributions of a wide variety of stakeholders
- A process for developing 2025-2060 transition trajectories by leveraging local expertise on climate change adaptation
- An approach to drafting short-term action plans and facilitating their implementation that stimulates the engagement of diverse stakeholders
Measure the immediate impact of the experimentation at each stage of development, and continually identify learnings on the conditions required for it to be replicated in other places
Disseminate the project’s learnings to a variety of parties involved in local adaptation in order to enrich their methodologies and resources

Methodology

Define and adopt a collaborative framework for governance that is shared by a diverse array of partners within each territory:
- These partners will also be given the role of putting the first steps of the 2025-2060 adaptation trajectory into action at the end of the project.
- Mapping the stakeholders will help define a strategy to get them involved according to the different stages of the process as well as a communication strategy.
- For each pilot territory, a project manager will be trained, supported and included in the entire process in order to develop local expertise.
For each of the two pilot territories, develop:
- A collective vision of the future that is desired by a diverse variety of local stakeholders in terms of climate change adaptation, with a time horizon of 2060. (Visions generated using data collected during workshops exploring fictional narratives on places that have adapted to climate change in 2060).
- A trajectory for transitioning to adaptation, defining the steps to be taken to connect the desired collective vision to the current situation, relying on local experts.
Develop and adopt a flexible, adjustable evaluation framework based on indicators and data collection tools, which will also be adjusted as needed, to measure the impact of using the method on an ongoing basis during the project.

Expected results

For each of the pilot territories:

A report presenting a collective vision of the future that is desired by a diverse array of stakeholders in terms of adaptation to climate change by 2060.
A document presenting a trajectory leading to the desired collective vision of adaptation: a list and description of the milestones (results) to be achieved progressively over the next 35 years for a successful adaptation, explanations of the links between the milestones and their temporal positioning, a list of the main hurdles of the anticipated future and ways to overcome them, and the results of a test of the robustness of the trajectory.

For the project as a whole:

A summary report including a description of the activities carried out and the people involved, an analysis of the difficulties encountered and the solutions selected, and a summary of the results of the adjustable evaluation and the adjustments made during the project and proposed for the future.
A scientific article.

Benefits for adaptation

This project will demonstrate how a prospective, collaborative approach can foster more systemic, transformational adaptation to climate change. Its evaluation will help identify the necessary adjustments for it to be reproduced in other areas of Quebec.

Within the pilot territories, the project will unite a wide variety of local stakeholders around a shared, collaborative vision of long-term climate change adaptation planning. It will also develop their ability to address climate change adaptation issues and solutions in a systemic way and increase their confidence in their ability to transform their local area.