Evaluation and projection of climate risks for apple growing across Quebec

This aim of project is to quantify the current and future climate risks for apple production in Quebec to support the industry’s adaptation efforts.

Project details

Scientific program

Programmation 2020-2028

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Food Systems

Start and duration

July 2025 • September 2028

Project Status

In progress

Principal(s) investigator(s)

Mick Wu

IRDA

Context

Apple growers in Quebec are dealing with the effects of climate change and have expressed the need to adapt their orchards. Climate-related effects on the quantity and quality of apples produced have been identified. However, it is difficult to predict the effects of climate on apple growing in Quebec as a whole, particularly because the scope of the existing studies is limited to certain varieties. In addition, these studies do not consider factors such as soil type or topography, which can also affect apple production, either directly or by modulating the impact of climate-related events. The apple growing industry needs ways to quantify the main climate risks and assess how they are changing for all of the apple-producing regions of Quebec, and to develop customized adaptation strategies for each orchard.

Photo : Stéphanie Gervais, 2024.

Objective(s)

The general objective of the project is to quantify the impacts of climate on apple yield and quality across Quebec, and to predict future climate risks to guide the choice and development of adaptation methods.

Methodology

Identification of agroclimatic indicators affecting apple yield and quality across Quebec:
- Literature review, consultations, and an expert working group including apple growers and agrometeorology and apple storage researchers to identify potential climate indices
- Development of a database on the 2006-2023 harvests (quantity and quality of apples sold) by orchard and variety, including the orchards’ pedology, topography and climate indices
- Spatio-temporal analysis of harvests using a Bayesian approach to integrate expert knowledge in order to identify the likelihood and impact of climate risks (production of risk maps)
Projection of climate risks in a future climate for different time horizons as far as 2100 (production of future risk maps)
Summary of the most appropriate adaptation measures for the identified climate risks (workshop with apple agronomists)
Dissemination of results to guide adaptation efforts, using a web application hosted on the IRDA website and workshops with apple growing industry stakeholders in Quebec

Expected results

This project will lead to the dissemination of maps of the main current and future climate risks to stakeholders in Quebec’s apple growing regions (growers, advisors and others). It will also provide information on the most promising adaptation solutions. In addition, a web application, accompanied by teaching material (workshop recordings, guide) will facilitate the dissemination of the results and the education of people working in the field.

Benefits for adaptation

Growers, agronomists, and other stakeholders in the Quebec apple industry will have a better understanding of key current and future climate risks to guide their adaptation efforts.